Therefore, Wood is predicting a couple of quarters in 2023, with home prices likely the most vulnerable in the first and second quarter of the year. Utah rallied relatively quickly back to a strong economy compared to the other 49 states. The impact of the correction on Utahs real estate market should be softened by its robust economy and limited home inventory. Realtor.com isn't the only group offering a strong forecast for the Salt Lake City real estate scene in 2022. It is likely that home buyers are waiting for asking prices to fall further and hoping that mortgage rates do the same. price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. The Utah housing market forecast for 2022 anticipates that more and more people will be on the lookout for property to purchase. Utah house prices are significantly higher than the national average, and local salaries are not keeping up with the price growth and inflation. In his report for Utah, Wood wrote its very unlikely that the recent price run-up represents a housing bubble, though he added, We dont know if a bubble exists until after it bursts. He cited Alan Greenspan, an economist and past chairman of the Federal Reserve, who defined a housing bubble as a prolonged period of housing price declines. The fi read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! While home prices have decreased about 3% month over month, home prices are up nearly 9% year over year in August. Join Us TREC:Info About Brokerage Services,Consumer Protection Notice. Yes! With the rise of interest rates, a significant economic shift is occurring and we will likely see Utah home sales temper buyer demand. As of November 2022, four consecutive 75 bps increases brought mortgage rates over 7%, reaching their highest level since April 2008 and standing over twice higher as the same time last year. Do not sell or share my personal information. The National Association of Realtors, however, is predicting 2023 will be a year the market will regain normalcy, expecting mortgage rates to stabilize, home sales to sag and prices to moderate. For this reason, despite the high median property price, investors in rental properties are most likely to enjoy very good returns. This data does not reflect actual moves. According to the Utah real estate market predictions from industry experts, there will be an influx of sellers in the state given the present condition of not having enough supply to meet the markets unprecedented growth. Instead, he was actually looking at a mortgage payment of up to $4,200 a month, depending on the days rate. At an annual rate of 2.6%, this was the slowest pace of growth since the state started recovering jobs post-COVID. between 2021-12-31 and 2022-12-31. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list. While Utah is below the national average in many areas, home prices have managed to remain strong. Wasatch County makes its way to our Utah housing market forecast for 2022 because it has attracted big-city folks from San Francisco and New York for relocation. Peak-to-trough, with thepeak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. The housing market in West Jordan is competitive, with the average listed property receiving five offers and selling within 27 days on the market. Right now, its close to 5. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. Utahs housing market has a tight supply, and while we may see prices decrease somewhat, its not likely to experience a significant decline in housing values. Utah faces a shortage of 31,000 homes. With their buying power significantly diminished, house hunters find themselves priced out of the market or may consider postponing their home-buying plans until interest rates return to a more affordable level. With rates hitting record lows of 2%, things are about to change in 2022 as recent trends on 30-year fixed mortgages have already come very close to 3%. Park City Data over year. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. South Carolina Housing Market 2023 Report, North Carolina Housing Market 2023 Report. By comparison, interest rates 20 years ago averaged between 6%-7%, and 1981 experienced interest rates of 16%. While 2021 was the year of the shocking home price, 2022 was the year of the reset, said Steve Perry, president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. According to September 2022 data, some of the key market stats for the Utah housing market appear as follows: As in many other places across the country, Utah home prices have increased faster than usual in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak. No, you shouldnt wait to buy a home. The 2022 for-sale home supply is expected to begin recovering from recent declines, but millennial demand will likely keep supply limited through at least 2025. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive. The rising inventory, coupled with listing price growth dropping below 10% for the first time in a year, offers some positives for homebuyers, Realtor.com stated in its report, as they may have more options and more time to make a decision on a home purchase.. By Eskics calculations, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home as of the third quarter of 2022. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. If you would like to buy a house in this dynamic state, the best time to house hunt is in the early spring (April) when inventory is at its highest in preparation for the hot summer real estate market, and Utah house prices are at their lowest. The governor said his proposed budget should translate to about 1,100 new low-income units across the state. It was the year that put homeownership far out of reach. Utah may be the 13th-largest state in the country by area, but it is also the 11th-least densely populated. Wallethub found Utah is the. From peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. The party was over. Compass announced a third round of layoffs on Thursday, according to The Real Deal. The 2021 Utah housing market will be long remembered for its record-breaking price increases. The music stopped. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, average home prices fell in every area other than Summit County, where they rose .8%. But now, those days of wild buyer demand and a frenzy of seller activity is over, and real estate agents outnumber active listings. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. Use analytics to nd lucrative traditional or Airbnb properties in a matter of minutes. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. However, like we saw during the pandemic housing frenzy, that could all vary depending on the region. (2023), Cost of Living in Hawaii: What You Need to Know (2023), How to Find the Best Mortgage Rates (2023), Outdoor activity opportunities are unlimited. So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy.. In early 2022, momentum was slowing from 2021, but then the faucet just got turned off., 2021 was on fire, and in 2022 its an empty concert hall, he said. How the pandemic housing frenzy which drove housing prices up to unimaginable levels in 2021 and into early 2022, especially in Western states like Idaho and Utah came to a grinding halt mid year, and the market crashed down to reality. Utah certainly didnt miss out on the massive property boom that spread through the country over the past year. Otherwise, the story is similar to many other states, with the number of homes sold decreasing, days on market increasing, and almost half of the listings dropping their price this month (48.9%). This was marginally below the rate of the prior year but impressive all the same. Heres why, 2021: The year of the shocking home price, Utah made a dent on its housing shortage in 2021 but is still 31,000 units short, Buying a house? 30-year mortgage rate: 5.59000%. The researchers Jim Wood and Dejan Eskic, both from the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Institute had a friendly debate Friday during Ivory Homes annual private gathering of hundreds of homebuilders and other industry partners from across the state. I think buyers will adjust, for one thing, Wood said, pointing to a chart that he said showed its very rare in Utah for housing prices to decline.. The median price of a home in the United States is currently $518,200.. There were 73 homes sold in December this . One of the most common myths going around about the Utah housing market forecast for 2022 and its present market is that it is just a bubble waiting to burst. After seven years of Salt Lake County sales averaging 18,000 homes, the high prices of 2023 will mean sales will not top 13,000, he predicted, and likely range between 11,000 to 12,000. Just to give you an idea, Utah Association of Realtors president Dave Robison said that in-migration is hugely impacting Utah real estate. You can try RealAdvisor home value appraiser, to get the value of your home in Utah. Therefore, the Utah housing market is to be expected to slow down. Utahs economy continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has started to slow. Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Stuck between rent hikes and high home prices, this family is scraping by to afford a home, still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality, How the housing market is making boomers richer and millennials poorer, how many other Utahns the market has priced out, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. A home is listed for sale in West Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. Winter sports are a highlight in Utah. The main concern is there are just not enough listed properties to go around for 500,000. 10 Best Neighborhoods in the Nashville Real Estate Market 2019. What is the housing market like in Cache County today? A good indication of the markets strength and inventory is the average number of days properties stay listed. Therefore, experts expect that Utah home prices will slow down their staggering growth and may decline in some areas. What is the housing market like right now? Should expert forecasts be correct, the median house price will rise over $600,000 in the next 12 months. Moodys Analytics expects a peak-to-trough U.S. home price decline of 10% or a 15% to 20% decline if a recession hits. Shouldnt I wait for mortgage rates to decrease before I buy? How can I get a free valuation of a home in Utah? A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive.. Theyre both confident Utahs job market is strong enough to avoid sweeping foreclosures and that housing demand will continue due to the states rapid growth and pervasive home shortage. , Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. The West was ground zero for the pandemic housing frenzy and has also been one of the first areas to see home listing prices getting slashed as the market corrects. Predictions include price drops, terrible consolidation, but better buyer balance, 2022 was a roller coaster year for the housing market, growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, The great reset of 2022: The year the Fed had no mercy on the housing market, U.S. navigating pandemic housing bubble, Fed chairman says. Search and compare real estate agents near you. That's a new high and a 28% jump from the median price of $430,000 in the same time period from 2020. Hes predicting Utahs home prices will only experience minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. All rights reserved. Keep in mind, however, that during the pandemic housing frenzy from early 2020 to late 2022, the nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, so even if the most pessimistic predictions pan out, they arent slated to erase the historic price gains seen over the last two years. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until "finally turning negative 2.1% in December," Wood wrote in his report. The average time it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report rose 27 days compared to the same period in 2021. Roughly two-thirds of the population live in the Wasatch Front in the north-central part of the state, which includes the capital city, Salt Lake City. Utah has seen a significant increase in population over the past decade, which will likely help with the influx of home listings once everyone gets used to the new lending rates. Well, perhaps I cantAlthough based on facts, I believe I can. All Rights Reserved, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. Just remember, pricing has never been more critical than right now. Then everything changed. Utah is expected to continue its rapid growth and will need to see an increase in available housing to accommodate the incoming population. Connect with an Agent FastExpert partner and Utah real estate agent, Preston Hicks, shares his professional perspective on the Utah housing market. The average months of supply is 3 months, up 3 year over year. These numbers are nothing to worry about, as they indicate a return to a more balanced housing market in Utah. The flood of new residents that started in 2020 has not slowed due to low unemployment rates, low taxes, and affordable housing. Hed hoped for a modest single family home, a starter home to share with his partner, to at least get their foot in the door of home ownership and out of the one bedroom, one bathroom apartment theyre currently renting in Salt Lake City. must have viewed at least 10 homes in a three month period. He has a natural inclination to the arts and creatives. Housing prices are deemed overvalued when their local incomes, job market, and economy do not support the sale prices. Industry experts and analysts have recently released their different takes on various US housing markets. If you dont see our email and have already checked your spam or junk folder, please give us a call at 1 (800) 319-0511. Single Family Rentals Facing Challenges in 2023, January 2023 Mortgage Rates: What to Expect, Existing Home Sales Fall in November 2022. Additionally, both Wood and Eskic predict Utahs estimated 31,000-unit housing shortage will continue to keep home prices high, even if the state sees some price drops, so they expect Utahs housing affordability crisis to remain a persistent issue that is pricing out more than 75% of Utahns from affording the states median-priced home. So (many have) stopped new construction and consequently weve seen new production just fall off, Wood said. The competition has been made even tougher since the pandemic started, with people from California and Colorado making their exodus to the Beehive State in search of more affordable housing along with a good educational system and a lower cost of living. Median home price: $533,500 a 5.6% Y.o.Y. As of November, that figure was down to $569,000 14% lower than the May peak but still 4% higher than in November of 2021. Mashvisors Utah housing market forecast 2022 and pretty much all other real estate forecasts for the year have identified Salt Lake City metro area as the countrys hottest housing market-beating other burgeoning areas like Boise ID and Spokane WA. However, Nelson-Ogilvy sees housing prices cooling off a . This gives us a 23.7% combined overall growth rate This projected growth puts them ahead of other booming markets like Boise City ID, Spokane WA, and Indianapolis IN. But having price declines is really unusual, Wood said. The client gave a slightly crooked smile to suggest that I am not only biased but also a Realtor who makes a living by selling properties in Utah. The mortgage rates will likely continue to rise compared to what they are today. John Burns Real Estate Consulting now expects U.S. home prices to fall 20% to 22%. Here are their year-over-year predictions for the Salt Lake City housing market in 2022: Forecasted home sales change: +15.2%. Of all the major U.S. metros, Miami was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to relocate between Nov '22 - Jan '23. Eskic said it all comes down to affordability. Forecast for 2022 High prices, likely interest rates increases, listing . Even with the recent slowdown, a correctly priced home will sell, and it will sell with record equity growth over the last 10-year average. Families flourish in Utah. The U.S. housing market is going through what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has called a difficult correction and a reset as it comes off the tail end of a pandemic frenzy fueled housing bubble. In its fight with record inflation levels throughout 2022, the Fed made a series of aggressive borrowing rate hikes, which translated to a spike in mortgage rates that priced or spooked buyers out of the market. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. The median days on the market was 70 days, up 47 year over year. However, it is also the third-most populous city in Utah, with a population of 116,961. One will often find him drawing, doing toy photography, or dabbling in other geeky stuff when he's not helping investors make smarter decisions. Short-term correction followed by continued growth and price increases. This is the MOST ACCURATE UTAH Housing Market Forecast for 2022. The median sale price was up 5.6% in September 2022 Y-O-Y, but the number of homes sold dropped 26.7%. Forecasted home price change: +8.5%. Therefore, with the current small but significant price change, a seller will realize enormous overall growth and equity increase. Considering how crazy the market was in 2020 and 2021, here is the Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition. I am not concerned by this and expect the market to moderate as it comes to terms with higher financing costs. Nevertheless, at the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market due to the lack of inventory. Although mortgage rates are expected to rise, the increase will be modest. While at the beginning of the year, homebuyers could purchase a home at an interest rate of around 3%, currently borrowers are looking at more than 7%. Wood, who has studied Utah's housing market for decades, forecasts that real estate sales will remain steady in 2022 while home prices will rise 10%-12%. So far, Utah home prices are still up year over year, but theyve so far fallen over 9% from their peak in May, according to Eskic. Homes sold fastest in Salt Lake County and slowest in Summit County. Heres why, Why are house prices so high? Rising financing costs will hinder housing demand and we may see home sales cooling. That said, listing prices were higher in Morgan, Wasatch, and Summit counties compared to the prior quarter. We always have deceleration in the rate of increases as the cycle plays itself out. They say it will pose challenges, especially for homebuilders, but also rebalance a market thats priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home. Utahs housing market is starting to feel the rising interest rates, resulting in plateaued price growth. That was also a time when the national economy and Utah faced a struggling job market, Wood noted. However, prices are still significantly higher and homes are selling faster compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, noted Daniel Hale, Realtor.coms chief economist. Each year, the Sal. The ones who are truly making money in real estate in Utah are the investors. An increasing population and a shortage of homes have increased house prices in Utah. At the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market as the available inventory is not keeping up with the demand despite an increase in the number of houses for sale and months of housing supply. All areas saw average market time rise compared to the third quarter of 2022 as well as the fourth quarter of 2021. In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. The Typical U.S. Home Changes Hands Every 12 Years, Down From 2020 Peak, Market Recovery Hampered by High Housing Costs, Low Supply in January, Housing Market Update: Sale Prices Flatten, Demand for Mortgages Falls as Rates Climb, Housing Market Predictions 2023: A Post-Pandemic Sales Slump Will Push Home Prices Down For the First Time in a Decade, Redfin Predicts a More Balanced Housing Market in 2022, Housing-Market Mayhem: U.S. Home Sales Likely to Hit Record High of $2.5 Trillion In 2021, REDFIN IS COMMITTED TO AND ABIDES BY THE FAIR HOUSING ACT AND EQUAL OPPORTUNITY ACT. , The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. The Utah housing market has been following similar trends as the ones observed nationwide, including a white-hot real estate market characterized by a low inventory and high demand for housing. It would be a huge understatement to say that it has upended the way we do things in the real estate industry and has caused some major disruptions and setbacks in many peoples plans. In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median priceof $518,200. However, because of the growing number of migrants in the state, Utah is now faced with what experts say is a severe imbalance in its housing market. Yes! The demand is causing local buyers to cut corners by foregoing home inspections and appraisal contingencies just to beat the competition. So, while Utahs real estate market is experiencing home prices falling similar to the Nation over this past month, the trend in Utah for housing prices has been an increase. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. West Valley City is assimilated to a suburb of Salt Lake City, but it is also the second most populous city in the state, with 140,230 residents. In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics. To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user Find an experienced, trusted local real estate agent with FastExpert. So Branca said he made the decision to back out of the market, hoping to maybe consider buying again when interest rates and potentially prices come down. The home was 2,500 square feet, four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, sat on a quarter acre lot, and they lived well within their means on a $1,000 a month mortgage payment. Additionally. Therefore, the impact of increasing interest rates has been felt more in the state than in other parts of the country. Scotty Fletcher, left, and his partner Joseph Branca pose for a photo in their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. While the market in Utah is feeling a correction similar to the rest of the Nation, it weathered the 2008 recession relatively well and is expected to maintain a strong housing market. Thats not good news for affordability or Utahs housing shortage, which they calculate hit 31,000 units after the big home building boom of 2021. And it looks like that trend is not going to end any time soon. Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. The discussion between Eskic and Wood was moderated by Clark Ivory, CEO of Ivory Homes, which is Utahs largest homebuilder. Historically speaking, real estate only becomes more expensive over time. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. Nationally, a growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, some expecting slight, single-digit drops, while others expect prices to fall by double digits, perhaps even over 20%. Over time, it is also the third-most populous City in Utah were down 3.0 % to. The lookout for property to purchase Summit counties compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the quarter. Prices cooling off a board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2022 significant shift. Quickly back to a more balanced housing market forecast 2022 edition and bidding wars are more... Expect, Existing home sales change: +15.2 % after only a few quarters increase. Median sale price was up 5.6 % in September 2022 Y-O-Y, but it is also the 11th-least populated. To purchase of inventory is likely that home buyers are increasing or.. 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